THE AMAZING RACE

Tomorrow is my favorite holiday of the year: the Academy Awards. (Sorry, Santa... and Jesus.) I've already expounded considerably on the subject, so I'll get to the point and offer my predictions in the acting categories, along with who I think deserves to win. Almost as certain as death and taxes, Slumdog Millionaire will nab Best Picture and Best Director for Danny Boyle. Not that there's anything wrong with that, since neither Clint Eastwood nor either of his 2008 films, Changeling and Gran Torino, is in the running.

Actor
Will win: Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Should win: Sean Penn for Milk
Mickey has momentum on his side, which is too bad for Sean. Like Jamie Foxx in Ray, his performance was so indelible that from now on whenever I think of Harvey Milk (which probably won't be too often), I'll picture Sean's face.

Actress
Will win: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Should win: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Kate will finally win her Oscar for the wrong film (it should have been The Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, her best performance to date), but Anne Hathaway's tortured and tormented soul moved me and continues to haunt me.

Supporting Actor
Will win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Should win: Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Nothing against Heath, but Robert's performance was the most inventive one I've seen since Johnny Depp scored his first nod for Pirates of the Caribbean.

Supporting Actress
Will win: Amy Adams for Doubt
Should win: Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler
I've had a feeling about Amy all along, and if she takes it, I won't complain. But the sentimental side of me is rooting for Marisa. The rest of me is wondering what happened to Amy Ryan. Her fierce performance as Angelina Jolie's fellow mental ward patient in Changeling was my favorite supporting turn of 2008, and she gets bonus points for uttering the best line: "Fuck you and the horse you rode in on!"